Chimpy's surge has failed.

The thing about reality and politics is that sooner or later, reality outstrips rhetoric, and then the politics is revealed for the lie it is. The silly allegation that the guerrillas are only artificially making it look like the surge is falling is another piece of fluffy illogic. Define "success" for the surge, and then measure reality against it. You could say that it is still early to make a judgment. You can't say that there is no evidence after 6 weeks for whether progress is being made. In that regard, the answer is clearly a resounding "No."